The counties are also mostly small and rural. The issues most important to Fannin include the economy, border security, and the virus. Im looking at both sides of it. A former Republican stronghold, Wood County supported GOP candidates Gerald Ford in 1976, and Donald Trump in 2020. Were not going to be able to afford this Democratic regime. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. SACRAMENTO . Swept up in unproven voter fraud claims, the Shasta County Board of Supervisors has upended the county's election process, canceling its contract with . We are a rural county here, Hill told The Epoch Times. Our roads need to be fixed. Former President Trump and his supporters continue to loudly assert that he really won the 2020 election even though all the alleged direct evidence of fraud has not passed the sniff test of local courts, including those with Republican judges. Ottawa County is on the doorstep of a Democratic stronghold, about 35 miles east of Toledo in neighboring Wood County. Seasonal businesses such as ferries, dairy docks, ice cream stands, Cheesehaven, and fudge factories, are closed. Logistically, its a disaster. Results from 28 counties have still not been finalized, per Brookings Institution. The indirect evidence for election fraud rests on various statistical claims about the high level of improbability of certain features of the 2020 election. Comparing the most recent elections (2000-2020) to those in earlier periods (1960-1980), we find a striking decline in the proportion of bellwether counties, i.e., those with correct prediction in past elections. We can place an order and immediately get an email back of what they dont have. He isnt so sure about Biden. Enforce the ones that you do have, he said. Part of his route is driving up to Detroit and Flint, Michigan, every day. There is nothing we can do about it; the power is out of our hands.. His morals also include being honest, and he is bothered by what he sees as lies coming from both candidates. 2020: Trump - 54.12%, Biden - 45.20%. Global Trade Policy Challenges: preparing for the next decade, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported. Thus it would appear that bellwether. I dont think he has done that bad of a job. TERRE HAUTE, Ind.For well over a century, voters in Vigo County, Indiana, have backed the winner in almost every presidential election. Donald Trump 16 out of 39 counties which are considered significant bellwethers. Two states have announced recounts. Youre not getting anybody perfect. The 2012 outcome seemed to be the beginning of a more robust shift to the right for the countywhile the state reelected Obama, Elk County had already moved on. It swung from Barack Obama in 2012 to Donald Trump in 2016, and political science professor Matthew Bergbower says its something akin to a purple county.. He was an apprentice and then a journeyman in a local steamfitters union for about 10 years before he was laid off. I mean the whole world ought to be mad at China, we should all be going to war against them. "If. The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the University of Denver and University of New Hampshire. If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? Colleton County, South Carolina - one miss since 1968 (in 1980), perfect since 1984. Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 33 percent nationally. The researchers also mapped all American counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scorethat is their record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. Jeff Myers, a lifelong Vigo County resident in Riley, on the other hand, wont let the big events of the day, such as riots and the pandemic, determine his vote. He says hes going to vote for the lesser of two evils.. Shepherds family, on the other hand, wasnt much interested in politics. Bergbower suspects Trump will win in the county by a smaller margin this year, but will win nonetheless. The unhappiness and unsatisfactory conditions have spread similar to the way COVID-19 has, a truck driver by the name of Sam, who also was at Wee Willys, told The Epoch Times. She registered as a Democrat about 40 years ago and has never bothered to change her affiliation, although she voted for Trump in 2016 and plans to do the same this year. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. Please read our comments policy before commenting. I vote for whomever I think is going to do the better job, whether they are a Democrat or a Republican. If that date were to change, the Ohio legislature is the only one who can request to postpone or change the date of an election through legislative action.. We have so many units that need to be repaired and we cant get the parts. The price of gas at the Marathon gas station in Port Clinton was $3.39 a gallon on Feb. 22 whenDave Beggs, anarmy veteran and retired City of Port Clinton heavy equipment operator, pulled in. RIDGWAY, Pa.Tucked into a wooded valley in north-central Pennsylvania is the bellwether borough of Ridgway, the county seat . It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. Haotian Chen is a Ph.D. student in political science at the University of California, Irvine. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Hes an elitist and just couldnt keep his mouth shut. If we dont stop them, if we dont take a stand basically were moving into socialism.. My opinion is thats just what it is, Shepherd said of COVID-19. Paul, a 51-year-old resident in Seelyvillejust east of Terre Hautewho also didnt disclose his last name, wont vote either. She can be reached at cara.ding@epochtimes.com, Biden Extends National Emergency Due to Extraordinary Threat of Russian Actions in Ukraine, Suburban Wisconsin Voters Divided on Presidential Race. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. In a 2020 article, Daniel Zimny-Schmitt and Michael Harris look for bellwether counties in the period 1980-2016 and identify nineteen such. At 6:30 pm we kick off an evening that showcases and celebrates Ukrainian arts and culture. Even if the mean likelihood of a match between county and presidential outcome is exactly 50 percent, in the classic argument offered by Deutsch and Madow in 1961, on the appearance of wisdom in large organizations, some counties will, by chance alone, have high records of predictive success and some may even have perfect records, especially if there are many counties and if we limit the number of elections over which we are requiring successful predictions. Competing for the Democratic nomination are John Cranley and former Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley. The morale of the people up there is bad. I cannot support a candidate that is not pro-life. Pro-life is one of the top items on his list of issues. At least Biden is honest, he said. He also believes many local Biden voters made the decision to vote for the Democratic candidate years ago, but theyre not going to be vocal about it.. However, in the 2020 primary election, more Democrats had turned out to vote3,413 to 2,598 Republicans, usually an indicator of how the presidential election is going to go, party officials believe. The United States needs to get back to where were responsible, energy independent, and get away from the thought process of these liberal socialists in office., Government is out of control, he added. Today, there are also 14,183 independents registered to vote and five libertarians, according to the Ottawa Countys Board of Elections website. In Ridgway, Biden supporters were more difficult to find and more reluctant to talk than Trump supporters, but a few yard signs were dotted around. Recently, the company needed to find a part for one of its trucks, and it actually located the only part available in the United States and was able to get it. Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic. A lot of people think things are. Being poor, I do believe that we need a stable safety net for people. The upper Midwest, upstate New York, and northern New England are home to a disproportionate share of high-scoring counties, they said. They've been dubbed "bellwether counties" and until this year,. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times) By Charlotte. The researchers also mapped all U.S. counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scoretheir record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. Bellwether County Portends a Red Pennsylvania in 2020 Election Carol Jacobs in Ridgway, Elk County, Penn., on Sept. 17, 2020. Haotian Chen University of California, Irvine 2020: Trump - 59.1%, Biden - 38.5. "The Wall Street Journal and The Epoch Times independently analyzed the results of 19 counties around the United States that have nearly perfect presidential voting records over the last 40 years. Two states have announced recounts. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about four points on average. They write that the electoral record shows that not only are bellwether counties poor predictors of who will win a presidential election, rising polarization means that their ability to predict long streaks of elections has been in decline over the last two decades. We need to make sure we keep our gun rights.. Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of the state between Toledo and Cleveland, the area has a population of 40,364, according to the 2020 Census. In both of the missteps, the residents wrongly picked the losing Democrat: Williams Jennings Bryan over President William Taft in 1908 and Adlai Stevenson over President Dwight Eisenhower in 1952. Peoples common sense level is cooked. He says hell vote for Trump. They can try all they can to prevent whatever they want to prevent, but nature is going to run its course, no matter what, Tisdell said. In 2016, Pennsylvania itself was wrenched out of its 24-year run as a Democratic sure bet when Donald Trump cleared just over 44,000 more votes than Hillary Clinton and took the states prized 20 electoral votes. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck and neck. I dont think my vote counts, he told The Epoch Times. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020. Portman wont be seeking reelection; seven Republicans are competing in the primary election for the partys nomination: Matt Dolan, Mike Gibbons, Josh Mandel, Neil Patel, Mark Pukita, Jane Timken, and J.D. Bellwethers ability to predict the winner has been attributed to a large population of voters willing to switch party preference from one election to the next. Yet unofficial vote counts now show Biden in the lead and with enough electoral votes to claim the presidency. We dont want it, she said. Michael Sakal is a former reporter for The Epoch Times. I dont watch TV. It doesnt matter whether you are a Republican or a Democrat, youre going to get a crook. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Moreover, once we allow for bellwethers to have less than perfect records of success, the expected numbers of bellwethers increases much more rapidly than most (including us) would expect. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. Epoch Times Canada (@EpochTimesCan) November 16, 2020. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. He told The Epoch Times that hes facing workforce shortages and currently only has 18 cookshalf of what he normally would have. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. Trump is challenging the results in several states, alleging fraud, voter suppression, and illegal restrictions on Republican poll watchers. Racine County, WI might be the single best bellwether: if it called all the elections with missing data elections correctly, it would have 86% correct. January 4, 2021: Rep. Jordan tweets an Epoch Times article about his effort to challenge Electoral College votes. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout 87 percent, compared to 76 percent nationally, according to census data. The majority of rural America are our hard-working, blue-collar workers. In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. And its never going to come back.. The farther we get from the November election, the more time data analysts and others have to examine the most unlikeliest of election victories by Democrat Joe Biden. On Sept. 14, a federal judge ruled Wolfs shutdown and restrictions on businesses unconstitutional, but the governor has since appealed. For the first time in as long as she can remember, since becoming a registered voter 35 years ago, all three county commissioners are Republicans. Now, its the situation with Russias invasion of Ukraine and how that might affect the world and its economies. We and the rest of the states boards of elections have been directed by the Ohio Secretary of States Office to hold the election on May 3. Why are you trying so hard to get this one guy out of office? he said of the disproven Russian collusion accusations and the presidents impeachment. Another Ridgway resident said hes more enthusiastic to vote for Trump this year. Its too big. It hurts the older people like me who are on a fixed income.. Logistics are a nightmare, Miller said. Rural white America is principally Trump, and they are ripe for conspiracy theories. A diverse group of residents, many were surprised to wake up the morning of Nov. 4, 2020, to see that Joe Biden overtook Trumps leads in numerous battleground states from the night beforesuch as in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Theres significant variability among them, though. As far as Wood County being a bellwether county, we do have a mixed group of people here. Here's why. Its population is 60% white and 27% Black. It bisects six counties Hillsborough, Polk, Osceola, Orange, Seminole and Volusia but is far bigger than the . The shift is evident when comparing current registrations with the 2016 numbers. We were as far down to five cooks last year. We shouldnt be fighting among each other here. We want to get people off of welfare, we need to get people back into working again, being self sustainable. Jacobs said she absolutely intends to vote in person on Nov. 3. The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the University of Denver and the University of New Hampshire. Wood Countyaswith Ottawa County, its neighbor to the east along Lake Erieis filled with farm fields, is home to many military veterans (about 7,000 of them), and hasnt seen much expansion or change since the late 1970s or early 1980s. He is just outspoken and doesnt filter what he is saying.. The county, which includes spring and summer destinations such as Kelleys Island, Marblehead, and Put-in-Bay, currently is in hibernation. Fannin plans to vote in person and is pretty sure Trump will win a second term, but hes concerned about the integrity of the mail-in ballots. Fifteen percent is a very large gap to close, he said. Supply chain issues also have plagued the restaurant industry, not just with food such as chicken and other meats, but also supplies, Chamberlin said. Terry Titchner, 70, said hes voting for Biden because he doesnt trust Trump. He doesnt take the money; hes got the money. Even Heidi Mackey, the clerk inside the station who said she hasnt voted since 2018, said shell likely vote in the May 3 primary. Half the people are just wearing rags on top of their face. Required fields are marked *. Wood (population 132,248), and Ottawa, are known as bellwether counties for picking the presidential candidate who wins the White Housebut it is uncertain whether Wood County can maintain. It is as if the devastating rebuttals by Tufte in Data Analysis for Politics and Policy or the equally devastating review of the evidence in David A. Hopkins 2017 book Red Fighting Blue never happened. Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic, while Westmoreland County in Virginia is almost one-third black. One older woman with a Biden sign outside her home simply said, Im voting for Biden, and thats all Ive got to say.. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. The price of regular gas at the local Sheetz was $2.53already substantially higher than across the border in West Virginia, where $2.19 was the norm. Instead of guns and bullets, hes bringing our troops home, hes ending wars. Your email address will not be published. Its the rural American, pro-life, pro-Second Amendment county that gave the edge to Barack Obama in 2008. He cares about the American people.. In West Terre Haute, across the Wabash River from Terre Haute, Bobby Tisdell, a 38-year-old forklift driver, plans to cast his first vote on Election Day. Theyve been dubbed bellwether counties and until this year, no president since at least Ronald Reagan has missed even one. Washington County, Maine - one miss since 1972 (in 1976), perfect since 1980. For example, across seven elections, we would expect to see 28 bellwether counties. They see it as just a show, but I think he is for America. Vigo County voters supported Trump by a 15 percent margin in 2016. Now, being more than $3 a gallon, people are beginning to notice it more as its putting a pinch on their wallets. It was easy. The City Center festival continued with Kyiv City Ballet, a Christopher Wheeldon duet and a daring work for Dayton Contemporary Dance Company. As for the pandemic, he doesnt think Trump has done a bad job on that. The expansion for First Solar was made possible by changes in the U.S. Corporate Tax Policy during the Trump administration. Nothing is free, Hawker said. I think thats what the world needed. Where there used to be eight auto plants in Wayne County now there is only one, the GMC Truck plant, he said. In the southern area just off Interstate 75 sits Bowling Green, the county seat and home of Bowling Green State University and Doyt L. Perry Stadium, where the Falcons draw large crowds in the Mid-American Conference. These 10 bellwether counties five in Sun Belt battlegrounds, five in the Frost Belt (loosely defined to include Iowa) could point us toward each state's winner. Because of the current situation, I have to look at our finances and say, Can I get this new truck, can I hire these two to three new employees, can we go into this new line of business? That is a very good thing to have. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. Many counties in states that have reliably voted for one party for many cycles are home to counties which have almost always voted for the winner of the election; for example, South Carolina has two strong bellwether counties despite being a reliably Republican state, and California has a number of strong bellwethers in its central valley despite being a reliably Democratic state.. She shook her head at the high price of gas. Petr Svab is a reporter covering New York. Under a changed political landscape in Ottawa County, Commissioner Mark Coppeler, a Republican, also looked at the bigger picture. And just a few miles outside the countys urban center of Terre Haute, youll find a sprawl of soybean and corn farms, with a rural demographic that often leans Republican. She thinks economic distress from COVID-19 will fuel more unrest. The Fall of the Bellwether Counties This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. Now, just because my president is Republican, I expected a swing to the right, but what we have nowthey broke the whole pendulum. Hes organizing a Second Amendment rally in Ridgway for Oct. 17 to make sure gun rights are fresh in peoples minds when they head to the ballot box. Since its founding in 1853 it has only got 13 out of the 37 extant elections right. Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of. On . (Michael Sakal/The Epoch Times). March 1, 2022 Updated: March 3, 2022 Print It could be said that Ottawa County is one of the top bellwether counties in Ohio, if not the country. Shortages are all over the place, Miller said. Jacobs believes theres more enthusiasm for Trump now than before the 2016 electionin Elk County and around the country. If you own a business and you have a bad summer where it rains every weekend, youre out of luck.. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. With respect to the notion that bellwethers are demographically representative, this appears not to true. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. The bellwethers ability to predict the winner has been attributed to a large swath of voters willing to switch party preference from one election to the next. In particular, recent research which identified nineteen bellwether counties found that they tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. These counties also disproportionately came from the Midwest and the Northeast. The All-Or-Nothing Bellwether: These are states or counties that choose the national winner every time. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Also, spare a thought for Webster County in Georgia. They take pride in going to work, owning their home, having that simple life. As the 2022 mid-term elections near (May 3 in Ohio), one might think that the Republican and Democratic headquarters might be open and in full swing, but at both party offices the week of Feb. 21, the lights were out and no one was occupying the desks inside or answering the phones. I have not seen any division like this [before]., I believe that is because of our current president, so my main issue is that he does not stay president..
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