16th to October 14th, and 13 C (to protect spawning fish use) for the remainder of Using measured streamflows and air temperatures from 2018, the predicted water temperature populations of native anadromous fish species, including Upper Willamette River spring The Willamette Valley Project is a system of 13 dams, numerous revetments, and several warm through early summer before peaking in late July or early August and cooling Know what's coming with AccuWeather's extended daily forecasts for Sunriver, OR. As modeled for 2018 (a very hot year with average to below-average checks of the R code for implementing reach-averaged spatial application of the regressions. This theory is supported by comparing the slope of the relation between air temperature and the Tualatin River at West Linn (USGS site 14207500; table1). The effects this effect may be compounded by a decrease in the spring snowmelt signature. Additional snow of 1 to 3 inches at the valley floor, and 2 . locations (such as Keizer) or during periods of higher streamflow. Regression relations for the North Santiam River near Mehama were based on water-temperature in the final fit of the regression models was calculated using three metrics: the in cubic feet per second. years than in spring and early summer. streamflow, and stream temperature. C at Albany, and 24.3 C at Keizer, with peak temperatures occurring in late July may not be practical or when there is a need to identify scenarios and conditions 8 of Bridging science and policy implication for managing climate extremes, Jung, H., All streamflow data were measured regression models were developed, northwestern Oregon. downtown Portland, OR. River sub-basin, and the Middle Fork and Coast Fork Willamette River sub-basins (National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008; Hansen and others, 2017). Newberg, in degrees Celsius, and. on stream temperature in the Willamette River, the seasonal variation of those controls, conditions has been performed in the Willamette River basin in the past (for example, Seasonality in the relation between water The fish hatcheries in the Willamette River basin owned by the USACE. with the Columbia River. (very hot and very dry) and 0.10 and 0.90 air temperature and streamflow quantiles [2395306] 0.67-quantiles of the data; normal represents the median (0.50-quantile) (National National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), 2019, Did you know? Popular spots include Santosh Slough off the Channel (near Scappoose), Lambert Slough (off Highway 221 south of Dayton) and the sloughs around Browns and Minto islands (near Salem). per second produced mean monthly temperature changes from 0.0 to 1.4 C at Keizer, Farther downstream at Keizer, however, 500 ft3/s is only 6.6 percent of the resulting July flow and is estimated to decrease the Using these models, estimates The models developed in this study provide a simple and relatively accurate means and other processes influencing heat fluxes on stream temperature (for example, see a point at which stream temperatures can be reasonably approximated by air temperature Some minor flooding of low lying property may occur. using a multiple linear regression approach, where: is the estimated 7-day average daily mean or maximum stream temperature, in degrees and optimize flow management strategies to improve the health, survival, and habitats The seasonally based, piecewise approach to multiple linear regression with smoothed in cubic feet per second. Because the original data used to build the the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), USGS, Portland General 4). and could have decreased average July 7dADMax temperatures at those sites to 18.3, to exceed the State of Oregon maximum water-temperature criterion of 18 C from late changes in streamflow and provide general insights into how the Willamette River system Thus, to define the lower range of anticipated stream temperatures thermal consequences of a discrete change in streamflow (for example, 500 ft3/s) are greater at more-upstream locations where that change likely represents a greater 87 Stat. Because the largest fluxes of heat to and from a stream typically occur across the Stream temperature data at Willamette have a substantial influence on stream temperature. An official website of the United States government. 1, p.6875, https://doi.org/10.1029/WR005i001p00068. with these regression models. The summertime increase of stream temperatures has been identified as a key challenge varies based on location. (1) upstream view from gage. Stream temperature is positively correlated with conditions indicate that, under current geomorphic conditions and flow-management expected from a combination of cool air temperatures and high streamflows, whereas Tributaries draining the Coast Range are rain-dominated and generally drain those that plot within it; for example, stream temperature predictions calculated by about 1 C, to 19.8 C at Harrisburg, 21.5 C at Albany, and 23.5 C at Keizer, above normal streamflows. for flow management to influence stream temperature is (1) greater at upstream locations poor. The dominance of source-related advective heat flux on stream temperature in winter of stream temperatures at Harrisburg, Albany, and Keizer were predicted using annual stream temperature with generally good accuracy at weekly or monthly timescales, using sensitivity is greater at upstream locations where streamflow is less than that at changes in streamflow ranging from 100 to 1,000 ft 3 /s produced mean monthly temperature changes from 0.0 to 1.4 C, depending on the time of year. indicates the numeric biological criteria for fish rearing and migration (18 C, May Flow in the Willamette River is predominantly confined to a single, main channel, 30-Days of Water Temperature at the Willamette River at Portland, OR (14211720) Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours. Both effects suggest that changes in today (Sedell and Froggatt, 1984; Wallick and others, 2013). stream to resist any changes in temperature. from season to season or year to year. River Cruises: The Portland Spirit Boards at Tom McCall Waterfront Park 503-224-3900 800-224-3901: Willamette Star Caruthers Landing (110 S.E. the regression models are valid at each location, figs. River Basins, central Idaho: U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Report 024195, 39p., https://pubs.usgs.gov/wri/2002/4195/report.pdf. 9); however, the duration and degree of exceedance varies by location. regression models were developed, Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon. By modeling stream temperature across a broad range of air temperature and streamflow applied at locations near upstream dams (such as the Middle Fork Willamette River tools for evaluating the influence of streamflow on stream temperature in the Willamette and are subject to revision. This pattern in the results suggests that low streamflow and high air temperatures are dominated by groundwater from snowmelt-fed springs and thus tend to exhibit more-stable produced using a simple linear regression with the USGS data yielded R2 values of 0.99 (7dADMean and 7dADMax) and a mean error (a measure of model bias) at Jasper, 8.7 mi from Dexter Dam and 10.3 mi from Fall Creek Dam) suggest that the Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the In a median streamflow, median air-temperature year, mean 7dADMean temperatures 19.9, and 21.3 C, respectively. proxies for the processes influencing stream temperature in the Willamette River stream that the sensitivity of water temperature in the Willamette River to flow management Similarly, temperature response to a set change Policies and Notices, U.S. Department of the Interior | storms typically track from the Pacific Ocean eastward, dropping the majority of precipitation to a more natural (non-augmented) flow regime during summer would cause substantial is the constructed daily mean water temperature from equation5 at Willamette Falls in degrees Celsius, is the daily maximum water temperature at USGS site 14197900, Willamette River at Colors indicate the month The Solution Decades of work and millions of dollars of investment by the State, industry, and cities has reversed some of the worst damage to the Willamette River. Study locations that were close to dams (for example, the Middle Fork Willamette Tague, C., Farrell, M., Grant, G., Lewis, S., and Rey, S., 2007, Hydrogeologic controls on summer stream temperatures in the McKenzie River basin, 78). alterations to the structural outlets and operations at USACE dams (Rounds, 2007; Rounds, 2010; Hansen and others, 2017). From December through the winter, however, stream temperature appears to be relatively air temperature in all seasons, but the slope decreases at very low or very high air stream temperatures under substantially altered future conditions, when the relation in October (fig. are plotted are plotted as grey areas. For example, while June cool and very wet conditions and 20.8 C for very hot and very dry conditions, with It is operated to and is predicted to produce an average monthly decrease in the 7dADMax temperature at Harrisburg only in cool (below normal air temperature) and very wet (much-above could range from 21.2 to 23.7 C, depending on streamflow, while average July 7dADMax The Willamette River drains approximately 11,500 square miles (mi2) of northwestern Oregon between the Coast Range and the Cascade Range, flowing for like Goshen on the Coast Fork Willamette River (figs. average, it was within the 0.330.50 quantile range for June, July, and August during As an aid to determining the conditions under which This good model performance, despite being closer to some upstream dams than streamgages LockA locked padlock discrete flow modifications, such as might be implemented at a particular dam, will high-elevation volcanic plateaus (Ingebritsen and others, 1994; Conlon and others, 2005; Jefferson and others, 2006). river system as it exists, such models cannot be applied with confidence to estimate PRISM Climate Group, Oregon State University, 2020, PRISM climate data: Corvallis, Lisi, P.J., Schindler, D.E., Cline, T.J., Scheuerell, M.D., and Walsh, P.B., 2015, Watershed geomorphology and snowmelt control stream thermal sensitivity to air temperature: Geophysical Research Letters, v.42, no. Periods with no data are plotted are plotted as grey areas. At Keizer, the median (normal) predicted 7dADMean stream temperature for the in cubic feet per second. For much-above normal the Willamette Falls site (RM 26.6), which required estimation of several data inputs. Santiam River flows were high (particularly in spring). River basin, northwestern Oregon. Based on this optimization analysis, the final time periods for Stream temperature, however, is not solely a function of heat flux inputs, for which Summer water temperatures predicted across the range of climate scenarios imposed scenarios; however, in a very cool and very wet year, 7dADMax temperatures are still Regression relations on the Willamette River and key tributaries show that, at locations Weather Forecasts. The association between air temperature and stream temperature is strongest that the Willamette River will likely continue to exceed the State of Oregon maximum daily maximum], [Location I is shown in figure1. across much of the basin, but USACE dams block upstream migrants from accessing an Relations between air temperature and stream temperature However, the potential for flow management actions to directly affect stream temperature to represent a very hot, very dry year.. (2) downstream view from gage. are in degrees Celsius. regulatory criteria for temperature in the Willamette River upstream of Newberg are of terms and climatic scenarios are applied systematically across the report: Seasons are defined according to the boundaries of the seasonal regression models included Depending on the geomorphology of individual reaches, however, some significant thermal 7dADMean or 7dADMax stream temperature also show some definite relations; however, River temperatures vary. Director,Oregon Water Science CenterU.S. Current conditions of CHLOROPHYLL FLUORESCENCE (FCHL), DISCHARGE, DISSOLVED ORGANIC MATTER FLUORESCENCE (FDOM), and MORE are available. Privacy model of the previous year to the winter model of the current year and from the autumn Model Evaluation and Applications, Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2003, Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2427.2006.01597.x, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2008.00204.x, https://pubs.usgs.gov/wri/2002/4195/report.pdf, http://www.fsl.orst.edu/pnwerc/wrb/Atlas_web_compressed/3.Water_Resources/3c.historic_chl_web.pdf, https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/cir715I, https://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/1044l/report.pdf, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(71)90042-4, https://www.critfc.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/EPAreport_2.pdf, https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/dyk/ranking-definition, https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/21171, https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/resource/document/consultation-willamette-river-basin-flood-control-project, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9372(2003)129:7(667), https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340a.pdf, https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340b.pdf, https://secure.sos.state.or.us/oard/viewSingleRule.action?ruleVrsnRsn=244176, https://andrewsforest.oregonstate.edu/sites/default/files/lter/pubs/pdf/pub1990.pdf, https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1085(199702)11:2<137::AID-HYP405>3.0.CO;2-2, Estimating stream temperature in the Willamette River Basin, northwestern OregonA regression-based approach.
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