2016 bellwether counties

We will only focus on the most recent elections to increase the pool of counties to analyze.). Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 369,734Republicans: 247,029No Party Affiliation: 218,642Others: 30,414. Georgia (16 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Ottawa County accurately predicted every president since 1964 until 2020, The Ottawa County commissioner says people are happy with Trump's accomplishments, Sunrise at East Harbor State Park, Ottawa County, Ohio, Minority voters who changed their minds about Trump, Chris Rock jokes about Oscars slap in Netflix show, Harry: I always felt different to rest of family, Everything Everywhere wins big ahead of Oscars, PM to end asylum claims from small boat arrivals, Street fighting in Bakhmut but Russia not in control, US-made cheese can be called 'gruyere' - court. The question is just how big of a margin she can run up here -- where roughly two-thirds of the states presidential votes were cast in 2012 -- to offset Trumps victories across much of the rest of the state. Some of the same messages that are going to work in Northeastern Ohio are maybe not going to work as well down here, said county GOP Chairman Alex Triantafilou. Obama won both with 56 percent; if Trump is making them competitive, that could mean Iowa goes his way. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up Bellwether: Watauga In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. Take the time to ponder and realize that this is no mean feat! This populous, longtime Republican county has shifted in the last two presidential elections, as demograpic change has swept the metro Atlanta area. Shield icon by Freepik from flaticon.com. Just how big is it? A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. After Detroits Wayne County, Oakland County is the most-populous in the state. In 2008, Obama received69,498,516 votes, per the Federal Election Commission. It has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 2000. Now, Democrats have to drive up the margin in this populous, central North Carolina county. Obama won Monroe County 49.6-49.1 in 2012 and 52-47 in 2008. Oct. 28, 2021, 11:05 AM PDT. HereIsTheEvidence.com and ElectionEvidence.com have compiled detailed databases of hundreds of items of election fraud evidence, by state. Colorado (9 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. It's true that it is unusual for the party of thecandidate who wins the White House to lose seats in the House of Representatives. That includes 10 elections, including Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. Co., as its sometimes referred to, has gone more closely for the statewide winner than any other big county. A bellwether county that includes Canton, its part of a heavily blue collar region where Trumps message could resonate. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. The following county is the only county to have voted for the winner of the presidential election in every election starting in 1980: The following 44 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in one election since 1980 (no counties deviated from the winner in 1980, 1984, or 1996):[3][4]. The divisions were everywhere. Other counties to watch: Denver suburbs Adams, Arapahoe, Jefferson. 1 County 61947 People 2012 Predicting since One county. We organized this by poll-closing time (all in Eastern time for the latest poll-closing times in that state), so you can follow along as the night goes: 1. Latest voter registration totals: 937,155 No party registration. Obama won it with 53 percent of the vote while winning statewide by just 75,000 votes in 2012. However, its bellwether status is by no means guaranteed in future elections. Click here, for more. Just one Clallam County, Washington voted for President Joe Biden. Allegheny (Pittsburgh) is also key for Democrats. What results did you discover? Sitting at the same Kozy Corners diner table that president Barack Obama ate from when on his own re-election campaign in July 2012, Mr Brikmanis, a lawyer, believes local Democrats' failure to get votes is also linked to the broader economic decline being experienced by rural and rust belt communities across the Midwest. "I asked if they were from the Republican Party, and they said they were," she says. Will they vote for the winner in 2016? Since only Clallam County voted Democrat in 2020, we know they all voted for the Republican party in 2020 and got it wrong. Found an error on our site? Not anymore. Third, it lists the fractionof bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. Go on, look them up! If they are tipping to Clinton, it's over. The Most Important Counties to Watch on Election Night. Arizona (11 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. These are the bellwether counties. Or even better, if you have children, get them to do it for you. What science tells us about the afterlife. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. Virginia (13 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. None of them impacts the legitimacy of the presidential election. Relatively few counties across the nation switched party support in 2012, but Rockingham was one of them, flipping from Obama in 2008 to Romney. The Bellwether County to Watch in Pennsylvania . Obama won it narrowly that year, by fewer than 3,000 votes. So, where are the bellwether counties? Website Updates Paused Situated on the southern shore of Lake Erie in Ohio, Ottawa County is one of America's most accurate bellwether counties - a region where voters correctly pick the president, election after election for decades at a time. The statistic on counties comes from a report bytheBrookings Institution on Nov. 10. In 132 years, no president has received more votes in his run for reelection and lost. Latest voter registration totals: 216,082No party registration. Weeks after Election Day, there have still been no discoveriesof widespread voter fraud. Instead, you can Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel which has more recent updates. Enter Donald Trump. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. Washoe County2016 caucus winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Obama 51%, Romney 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Republican: 105,410Democrats: 102,422Unaffiliated: 53,048Others: 19,815. "It wasn't part of his strategy.". Follow us on Telegram to be notified when we release the remaining articles. Whether or not these less diverse, industry-dependent communities can regain their bellwether status in four years' time remains to be seen. "People are more likely to identify with a party than we've seen before," says Harrison Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics, a polling firm that works with progressive and Democratic interests. Second, the meme includes the number of counties each candidate won Obama at 873, Trump at 2,497 and Biden at 477. Some say it's not only the polarisation induced by the outgoing president that's to blame for traditional bellwether counties' failure to correctly predict the election. In fact, a national coalition of election security officials described the general election as "the most secure in American history," per USA TODAY. TIP: In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. In 2020, a single county in the setkept its perfect recordby tallying a win for Biden. Their ability and sensitivity to dramatically switch parties in 2000, 2008 and 2016, is outstanding. But what if we told you that only 1 of these 22 counties voted for Biden in 2020? If Clinton is going to win Utah, she will need to squeeze out as many Democrats as is possible in Salt Lake, and maybe win young people in those college towns, including Logan in Cache County (Utah State). But its population has steadily diversified, including a surge in Asian and Latino voters, which has made it more competitive Obama carried it twice. But theres a blue collar contingent too who feel like theyre being ignored, according to county Democratic Chairman Marty Martinez. Ultimately, they are simply 19 counties and this time, 18 of them voted for the candidate who lost the election. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 57%-41% - 2008: McCain 55%-44%. Hillary Clinton (578) He would have to really drive up big margins in the less populous counties in the mountainous Western part of the state, as well as Chesterfield (south of Richmond) and Virginia Beach. If the Republican percentage in 2020 is less than in 2016, it would clearly indicate a change in sentiment away from the Republican party, towards the Democrat party. Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. The fact that there were 19 demonstrates the incredible predictive abilities of these counties.). Lake County is a perpetual nail-biter. If it's close here, Georgia could be in play. But its also home to the largest concentration of registered Republicans in the state. used to vote more like the country as a whole, huge gains with white voters without a college degree, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government, Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off. The American Voter's Alliance provides a great national overview with many reports, videos and detailed legal submissions. hide caption. Four years later, Caswell is still looking for a second act for its . New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa Obama won them, Trump won them, Biden lost them. Want to dive deeper? @ryanmatsumoto1, Donald Trump (1624 posts) When is Eurovision and how do you get tickets? As such, the margins in bellwether counties became substantially more Republican even as the country only became a little more Republican, as you can see in the chart below. The state's demographics suggest it could go blue one day. 7. She blames much of that on the "Trump effect" - Mr Trump's ability to engage people in politics by appealing to their fears and discontents. 11. First, itliststotal number of votes they received Obama at 69,000,000,Trump at 74,000,000 and Biden at 81,000,000. Did they narrowly miss out on voting for the Democrat party in 2020? Thank you for supporting our journalism. But its not just demographic trends driving the loss of bellwether status. Her running mate Tim Kaine the former Richmond mayor and Virginia governor could make a difference here, Latest voter registration totals: 230,236No party registration, Loudoun County flipped from red to blue in 2008, when Barack Obama won it and held it in 2012. A swing county is a county that voted correctly for the winning party at one election and then voted for the other winning party at the next election. So those suburban whites are key here and might tell a story not just about who wins the state, but who wins nationally. (Independent parties will reduce the winning margin between the two major parties.) Sumter County, . Hamilton is ringed by heavily Republican Butler, Warren and Clermont counties, and it shares a border with Indiana, which is giving hope to GOP officials who think Trumps running mate, Indiana Gov. The percentage of people with college degrees here is two-thirds higher than the rest of the state. President-elect Joe Biden officially secured the presidency after the Electoral College met to give him and Vice President-elect Harris 306 votes. Wilkes-Barres Luzerne County is traditionally Democratic territory in northeastern Pennsylvania but its also an aging, working-class county where Trumps message is resonating. We welcome any suggestions and content contibutions with credible references that help others understand the key election integrity issues. In communities . And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. (Think about what it takes, and what is required for a county to always get the election right. This sizable Cincinnati suburb has reflected the statewide margin in the last two presidential elections. A Changing America Faces A Stark Choice This Election. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 53%-46% - 2008: Obama 56%-42%. The second-most populous county in the state, northern Nevadas Washoe County is home to Reno. In Valencia County, New Mexico, which had correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1952, Mr Trump won by 10 points; in Indiana's Vigo County, which backed every president bar two since 1888, he prevailed by 15 points. Again, youll appreciate the results when you dig some of them up yourself. Watauga has gone for the winner statewide in each of the last three presidential elections and three Senate races since 2008. These are places that are demographically strong for Republicans in the abstract, but might have had something that kept them closer to 50-50.". Multiple factors, including higher turnout and population growth, contributed to the fact that both Biden and Trump totaledmore votes than Obama. By Dasha Burns, Antonia Hylton, Shaquille Brewster and Benjy Sarlin. (It will at least show a trend away from the Republican party that would help make more sense of this situation. Tampa's Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida . They are not a statistical curiosity, but the perfect distillation or embodiment of the whole countrys sentiment. Democrats need to drive up the margins in Fulton and DeKalb. View our How You Can Help page, or contribute via You should now have a real tangible sense of how difficult it is to get a streak of 10. It did go for John Kerry in 2004, though, when Bush won the state, so let's see if Monroe retains its bellwether status beyond two elections or if it was just a cheeseburger in paradise. In the past, says Mrs Day-Baker, the presence of conservative Democrats and split-ticket voting - choosing a Republican nominee for president but Democratic Party candidates as local representatives, or vice versa - were both commonplace. When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there is 1 county that has a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. ", "Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election", "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_election_bellwether_counties_in_the_United_States&oldid=1125445752, This page was last edited on 4 December 2022, at 01:36. 108,000 people. Read about our approach to external linking.

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